VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS-中国Betway体育网页登陆

摘要 Thenumberoftropicalcyclone(TC)genesisovertheSouthChinaSeaandtheNorthwestPacificOceanin2009issignificantlylessthantheaverage(27.4).However,thenumberoflandfallTCovermainlandChinaanditsassociatedrainfallismorethantheaverage.Thispaperfocusesontheperformanceofnumericalweatherprediction(NWP)oflandfallTCprecipitationoverChinain2009.TheChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(CMA)andJapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA)modelsarecompared.Althoughtheschemesofphysicalprocesses,thedataassimilationsystemandthedynamicframeareentirelydifferentforthetwomodels,theresultsofforecastverificationaresimilartoeachotherforTCrainfallandtrackexceptforTCGoni.Inthispaper,adaywithdailyrainfallamountgreaterthan50mmwasselectedasastormraindaywhentherewasaTCaffectingthemainland.Thereare32stormraindaysrelatedtothelandingoftyphoonsandtropicaldepressions.TherainfallforecastverificationmethodsofNationalMeteorologicalCentre(NMC)ofCMAareselectedtoverifythemodels’rainfallforecast.ObservationalprecipitationanalysesrelatedtoTCsin2009indicateaU-shapespatialdistributioninChina.Itisfoundthattherainbeltforecastedbythetwomodelswithin60hoursshowsgoodagreementwithobservations,bothinthelocationandthemaximumrainfallcenter.Beyond3days,theforecastedrainfallbeltshiftsnorthwardonaverage,andtherainfallamountofthemodelforecastsbecomesunder-predicted.TherainfallintensityofCMAmodelforecastismorereasonablethanthatofJMAmodel.Forheavyrain,theJMAmodelmademoremissingforecasts.TheTCrainfallisverifiedinGuangdong,Guangxi,FujianandHainanwhererainfallamountrelatedtoTCsisrelativelylargerthaninotherregions.TheresultsindicatethatthemodelforecastforGuangdongandGuangxiismoreskillfulthanthatforHainan.TherainfallforecastforHainanremainsdifficultforthemodelsbecauseofinsufficientobse

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VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS

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