摘要
Basedontheanalysesonamplitudesofhistoricalvariationoftemperatureandprecipitationinthepast500yearsandlatest100years,accordingtotheregionalclimatechangescenariosforChinaestimatedbycompositeGCM,thepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeoncroppingsystemsinChinainfuturearesimulatedandassessedusingthecroppingsystemmodeldevelopmentspeciallyfortheChinesecroppingpatterns.Itisshownthatundertheprojectedfutureclimatechangeby2050themostpartsofthepresentdoublecroppingareawouldbereplacedbythedifferenttriplecroppingpatternswhilethecurrentdoublecroppingareawouldshifttowardsthecentralpartofthepresentsinglecroppingarea.Moreexplicitly,thenorthernboundaryoftriplecroppingareawouldshiftfromitscurrentborderattheChangjingRivertotheHuangheRiver,ashiftofmorethan5degreesoflatitude.Andtheshiftofmultiplecroppingareasleadstoasignificantdecreaseofsinglecroppingarea.Furthermore,consideringthechangesmentionedaboveincombinationwiththelikelynegativebalanceofprecipitationandevapotranspirationand,therefore,increaseofmoisturestress(i.e.lesswateravailability),aswellasthepossibleincreaseofheatstressdisasteranddecreaseofLGS(lengthofgrowingseason),thepotentialimplicationofclimatechangeforagricultureinChinaarealsoanalyzedroughlyinthispaper.Asaresult,however,itisstillverydifficulttoreachaspecificconclusionthatthefutureclimatechangewillhefavorableorunfavorabletofarminChinabecauseofthecomplicatedChinesefarmingpatterns,thecomplex-varioussocialandeconomicenvironmentofagriculturaldevelopmentand,especially,agreatscientificuncertaintiesintheinvestigation/predictionofclimatechange.
出版日期
1997年04月14日（中国Betway体育网页登陆平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
