MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTING OF LOW TEMPERATURE AND ICY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHINA IN EARLY 2008-中国Betway体育网页登陆

摘要 Basedonthedailymeantemperatureand24-haccumulatedtotalprecipitationovercentralandsouthernChina,thefeaturesandthepossiblecausesoftheextremeweathereventswithlowtemperatureandicingconditions,whichoccurredinthesouthernpartofChinaduringearly2008,areinvestigatedinthisstudy.Inaddition,multimodelconsensusforecastingexperimentsareconductedbyusingtheensembleforecastsofECMWF,JMA,NCEPandCMAtakenfromtheTIGGEarchives.ResultsshowthatmorethanathirdofthestationsinthesouthernpartofChinawerecoveredbytheextremelyabundantprecipitationwitha50-areturnperiod,andextremelylowtemperaturewitha50-areturnperiodoccurredintheGuizhouandwesternHunanprovinceaswell.Forthe24-to216-hsurfacetemperatureforecasts,thebias-removedmultimodelensemblemeanwithrunningtrainingperiod(R-BREM)hasthehighestforecastskillofallindividualmodelsandmultimodelconsensustechniques.TakingtheRMSEsoftheECMWF96-hforecastsasthecriterion,theforecasttimeofthesurfacetemperaturemaybeprolongedto192hoverthesoutheasterncoastofChinabyusingtheR-BREMtechnique.ForthesprinkleforecastsovercentralandsouthernChina,theR-BREMtechniquehasthebestperformanceintermsofthreatscores(TS)forthe24-to192-hforecastsexceptforthe72-hforecastsamongallindividualmodelsandmultimodelconsensustechniques.Forthemoderaterain,theforecastskilloftheR-BREMtechniqueissuperiortothoseofindividualmodelsandmultimodelensemblemean.

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MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTING OF LOW TEMPERATURE AND ICY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHINA IN EARLY 2008

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