摘要
Thispaperstudiesthetemporalandspatialdistributionofgreatglobalearthquakes(MW≥8.0)since1900.Wecomparethetwoperiodsofupsurgesofgreatearthquakesoccurringinthemiddleoflastcenturyandbeginningofthiscentury.Theformerperiodtookplacebetween1950and1965duringwhich13greatearthquakes(MW≥8.0)occurred,includingthreeeventswithmomentmagnitudegreaterthan9.0.Thelargestmagnitudeinthisperiodreached9.6.Thelatterperiodstartsfromthebeginningofthiscentury.Inlessthan12years,15greatearthquakeshaveattackedtheworldwiththelargestmagnitudebeingMW9.1.Onthebasisofcomparisonbetweenthesetwoupsurgesofglobalearthquakeactivity,weinferthattheongoinghighlevelofearthquakeactivitymaycontinueforanotherfiveyearsorso.Numerousgreatearthquakes(MW≥8.0)andmanylargeearthquakes(MW6.0~7.0)willoccurgloballyinthesefiveyears.Inaddition,thispaperalsodiscussestherelationshipsbetweenearthquakeactivityalongtheSumatrasegmentoftheIndian-AustraliaplateboundaryandthatintheBayankalablockinthemiddleofQinghai-Tibetanplateauaswellasintheblocksofthesouthernplateau.TheresultsindicatethattheQinghai-Tibetanplateau,inparticularitsmiddleandsouthernparts,isalikelyplaceforfutureearthquakesofmagnitudeover7.0.
出版日期
2013年03月13日（中国Betway体育网页登陆平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
