A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS-中国Betway体育网页登陆

摘要 Aquantitativeschemeisputforwardinourworkofforecastingthestormrainfalloftyphoonsforspecificsites.Usingtheinitialparameters,weathersituationsandphysicalquantitiesaswellasnumericalweatherpredictionproducts,theschemeconstructsmultivariate,objectiveandsimilaritycriteriaforenvironmentalfactorsforthetimebetweenthecurrentandforthcomingmomentwithinthedomainofforecast.Throughdefininganon-linearsimilarityindex,thisworkpresentsacomprehensiveassessmentofthesimilaritybetweenhistoricalsamplesoftyphoonsandthosebeingforecastintermsofcontinuousdynamicstatesunderthemultivariatecriteriainordertoidentifysimilarsamples.Thehistoricalrainfallrecordsofthesimilarsamplesareusedtorunweightedsummarizationofthesimilarityindextodeterminesite-specificandquantitativeforecastsoffuturetyphoonrainfall.Samplesresemblingthetyphoonbeingforecastareselectedbydefininganon-linearsimilarityindexcomposedofmultiplecriteria.Trialtestshavedemonstratedthatthisschemehaspositivepredictionskill.

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A SIMILARITY SCHEME FOR QUANTITATIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION OF TYPHOONS

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